A Semi-APARCH approach for comparing long-term and short-term risk in Chinese financial market and in mature financial markets

The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-term and short-term risk components in Chinese financial market and to compare them with those in mature financial markets. For this purpose a most recently proposed Semi-APARCH is applied to the Shanghai Index and the Shenzhen Index, and four financial indexes in mature markets. A few important empirical findings are achieved. Firstly, the current long-term risk in Chinese financial market is stable and at a low level. Secondly, the dependence level between long-term risk in Chinese financial market and that in mature financial market is not high. Thirdly, the short-term risk in Chinese financial market differs to that in a mature financial market at least in two ways: 1) The leverage effect in Chinese financial market is much lower than that in a mature financial market. 2) The innovations in Chinese financial returns is nearly heavy-tailed distributed. This is however not the case in a mature market.